Learn About Futures March 17

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Larry Levin Trading Tips 7th

Learn About Futures for No 18th, 2010: US Dollars Index

Since the dawn of commerce and trade, currency has evolved to facilitate the process by providing a medium of exchange and helping people represent a store of value. The circulating medium, whether coins or paper money, was developed in many cultures. The U.S. dollar is a globally recognized hard currency. The U.S. Dollar Index is a measure of the value of the U.S. dollar against six major world currencies using a weighted geometric mean. U.S. Dollar Index futures are traded on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) and the CME, but for this lesson, specifications will refer to the ICE contract...more about US Dollars Index

The Learn About Futures Insider for Nov 4, 2010 : Lean Hogs

Learn About Futures Insider Oct 21

Like no other metal on earth, gold has captured the imaginations and emotions of humans across centuries. From jewelry and sculpture, to a store of wealth and symbol of status few other elements could claim the mantle of historic importance like gold can. Traded on many exchanges with both cash and futures contracts, these specifications are for the futures contract from the CME Group. Contract Size: 100 troy ounces Price Quote & Tick Size: Dollars and cents per ounce; minimum tick size is ten cents per ounce or $10.00 per contract. Contract Months: All months Trading Specs: Open outcry on runs from 8:20 am to 1:30 pm ET. Electronic trading on Globex runs Sunday through Friday 6:00 pm until 5:15 pm with a 45 minute break each day. Daily Price Limit: As of date of initial publishing, there were no daily limits; however, it is wise to consult exchange. Trading Symbols: GC or EGC for Globex Past performance is not indicative of future results. ***chart courtesy of Gecko Software Gold Facts Gold is a chemical element which occurs as nuggets or grains in rocks. This dense metal is also soft and shiny making it a natural choice for early jewelry and adornments. Gold is also naturally resistant to corrosion giving it modern appeal in dentistry and electronics. A popular choice for use in everything from wedding rings to coins, gold has been located in almost 90% of the land areas on earth. Even the oceans contain gold - possibly up to 2 mg per ton , however, extracting it would be too costly on a large scale. Gold is normally combined with other metals as pure gold is too soft to be applied in ways that result in frequent handling. Although gold mining is an important source of world gold, it is also one of the most recycled metals today meaning that the supply and demand dynamics are a little removed from the normal production and consumption cycle. According to the World Gold Council, in 2008 the supply sources of gold could be broken down as illustrated in the following chart: *Data courtesy of the World Gold Council Gold mining can be traced back to early Egyptians around 3500 B.C. and the largest known deposit of the yellow metal is in South Africa. Today, gold mines are operated all across the globe with the most important - or at least the most prominent - in South Africa, the source of 40 percent of modern gold mining, and China. Important Modern Gold Discoveries: North Carolian Gold Rush 1803 California Gold Rush 1843 South African Gold Reefs 1886 Kalgoorlie's Golden Mile in Western Australia 1893 Klondike Gold Rush, Yukon, Canada 1896 Serra Pelada, Brazil 1983 The latest estimates and projections from the US Geological Survey provide an illustration of world mine production as follows: Data courtesy of the USGS Key Terms Bullion - Precious metals in bar or coin form. These can be used as a vehicle for physical investment in gold. Bars are usually larger than coins. Many popular coins for investment are produced by the national mint of particular countries. Good Delivery Bar - An acceptable bar of gold which can be delivered against a contract. The London Bullion Market Association has requirements for their Good Delivery bars which include an approved list of refineries. These are the bars normally used on major markets like government gold reserves and central bank reserves. Carat; Karat - A term for a measure of fineness for gold which is between one and 24 with 24 being closest to pure gold. Often abbreviated as "k" Fineness - A term for a precious metal's purity expressed as a portion of 1,000 parts of an alloy. .999 gold has 999 parts gold, one part another metal. Gold is often alloyed with silver or copper, or both. Key Uses Gold has been applied to everything from pharmaceuticals to food but continues to be used primarily for ornaments. According to the World Gold Council, identifiable gold demand in 2008 broke down into the following sectors (excluding central banks): *Data courtesy of the World Gold Council Key Concerns Important fundamental factors for gold prices include economic conditions as well as supply conditions. Economic Reports: Gold can be viewed as a haven for investors due to is historic level of import with regards to wealth. The economic conditions on a global level - as well as market reactions to individual reports in the US - may have an impact on gold price volatility. It is still a commodity and may also move with the movements of world currencies and vice versa. Regional Concentration & Perceived Scarcity: The state of mining in South Africa, the jewelry demand in Asia, bullion demand, investment concerns - all add up to a pretty important basket of fundamentals. Applications: Besides jewelry or investment demand, any increase in industrial applications for gold could impact price or volatility.

_______________________________________________________________________________________ Disclaimer: There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading and it is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your account size and/or margin requirements. Commodities trading can be extremely risky and is not for everyone. Some trading strategies have unlimited risk. Educate yourself on the risks and rewards of such investing prior to trading. Futures Press Inc., the publisher, and/or its affiliates, staff or anyone associated with Futures Press, Inc. or www.learnaboutfutures.com, do not guarantee profits or pre-determined loss points, and are not held monetarily responsible for the trading losses of others (subscribers or otherwise). Past results are by no means indicative of potential future returns. Fundamental factors, seasonal and weather trends, and current events may have already been factored into the markets. Options DO NOT necessarily move lock step with the underlying futures contract. Information provided is compiled by sources believed to be reliable. Futures Press, Inc., and/or its principals, assume no responsibility for any errors or omissions as the information may not be complete or events may have been cancelled or rescheduled. Any copy, reprint, broadcast or distribution of this report of any kind is prohibited without the expressed written consent of Futures Press, Inc.

Mound Weekend Report for Oct 17th : Financials

General Comments

Last week I released my 4th Quarter Commodity Outlook and a special report that forecasts the imminent collapse of gold and silver. The report is 30 pages of market analysis covering energies, softs, metals, grains, financials, and meats. It is still available for 50% off by visiting http://commodityoffers.com/mega-forecast4.html - the offer expires October 18th.

Financials

Stocks are currently in an extreme overbought condition and lacks volatility or volume during this rally to indicate that it will sustain this move. I anticipate a selloff and in this week’s Mound Trade Signals service I will be issuing a trade recommendation to play this forecast. Bonds remain weak and I recommend a deep out of the money put with loads of time on it. The dollar rallied above monthly trend line support and appears to have made a bull turn, although a quick test of last week’s low is not out of the question. Regardless, I expect a dollar rally to at least 83. The Japanese yen remains a strong buy as the intervention did little to thwart the overwhelming global demand for this currency on the move. I continue to stand by my forecast that:



**Chart courtesy of Gecko Software's TracknTrade

The Canadian dollar and Aussie dollar both made attempts at par against the U.S. dollar, but turned bearish with strong selling expected in both markets this week. Puts remain great play in the Canadian December option chain and I recommend straight puts to capitalize on the anticipated selloff. The euro and pound are strong sells.

Learn About Futures Insider Oct 14th : Cocoa

From a luxury item to a staple part of modern life, cocoa remains a decadent product whose origins are exotic - even mysterious - for most end-users. Cocoa beans come from pods from trees (cocoa or cacao) which were originally grown in South America and were eventually cultivated on the African continent at the dawn of the nineteenth century. Grown in only a handful of countries across the globe, cocoa has an interesting and dynamic set of fundamentals which affect price. Although cocoa is traded on two exchanges globally - London and New York -contract details will focus on the New York, or Intercontinental Exchange, information. Contract Size:10 metric tons Price Quote & Tick Size: Dollars per metric ton; minimum price fluctuation is $1.00 per metric ton or $10.00 per contract Contract Months: March, May, July, September, December Trading Specs: Futures trade electronically only on the Intercontinental Exchange 0400 to 1400 ET. Options floor trading hours are 0800 to 1300 ET. Daily Price Limit: None Trading Symbols: CC futures, CO options Past performance is not indicative of future results. ***chart courtesy of Gecko Software Cocoa Facts A huge percentage of global cocoa production resides within the African continent with the crown for production numbers falling to Ivory Coast (Cote D'Ivoire) at almost double its neighbor Ghana's production. The total production numbers for the bean have grown through the last decade not due to increasing yields but rather increased production area. Key producers for the 2007/08 year, according to the International Cocoa Organization's (ICCO) forecasts, include the following: Past performance is not indicative of future results. *Data courtesy of the ICCO Annual forecasts from 3/20/08 Trees begin to bear fruit when they are four or five years old and produce an average of twenty pods a year which spring from flowers pollinated by tiny flies, or midges. Once a pod ripens, it can contain anywhere from 20 to 60 beans embedded in pulp within an orange-colored rind. Pods are opened and the pulp and seeds are allowed to ferment or "sweat", a process by which the pulp liquefies leaving the beans to be collected and then dried. Pods can mature on the trees throughout the growing season from October to September but there is a general consensus that among producing nations there is a main crop and a mid-crop. However, since cocoa is a tropical crop, changes in the weather and the near year-round rainfall for some growers means that main and mid-crop harvest times can fluctuate. Key Terms Black Pod Disease - one of the most commonly referenced diseases that can affect cocoa trees. The pod rot is caused by Phytophthora, a fungus. It is quick to spread when there is a lot of rain or humidity, insufficient sunshine, and lower temperatures. Growers can try to control the fungus with copper-containing fungicides as well as prompt removal of infected pods. Grindings - during production, the cocoa seeds from inside the pod are dried, cleaned, roasted, and de-shelled to make nibs. Nibs are ground to make pure chocolate. The grindings in news often refer to data on how much cocoa is being ground in certain areas, a potential indicator for chocolate stocks and manufacturing. Flavanoids - according to the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO), the chocolate manufacturing industry has moved towards introducing more dark chocolate or high cocoa content chocolate. This is due to recent research which suggests some components of chocolate - flavanoids - could play a role in preventing some cardiovascular diseases and some cancers. Key Uses Cocoa is used primarily as a food product for human consumption. It is processed into chocolate and cocoa products used globally. Most cocoa activity within the last fifty years has involved "bulk" or "ordinary" cocoa - beans from the Trinitaro or Forastero trees. "Fine" or "flavor" beans generally come from Criollo trees. There are exceptions, but most beans will fall into those two categories and will be used in producing the following: Cocoa Liquor - Beans are roasted before or after the shell is removed and the inside "nibs" are ground into a paste. Heat generation during this process causes the cocoa butter to melt. Cocoa Butter and Cocoa Cakes- Finely ground liquor is fed into a hydraulic press to extract cocoa butter, leaving cakes which can contain anywhere from 6 to 24 percent of the initial butter. Cakes are ground or broken to be used further in chocolate manufacture. Cocoa butter can be added to soaps and cosmetics as well as food products. Dutch Cocoa - Liquor or nibs can be treated with an alkali solution to produce a milder and darker cocoa. Key Concerns Cocoa trees are grown in areas within ten degrees to the north or south of the equator, a concentration which leaves little room for error within the supply chain. Among the issues for cocoa farmers, a few stand out as possible price movers. Rainfall and Temperature - Cocoa trees are sensitive to soil water deficiency and dry spells that exceed three months can have a huge impact on yield. Trees respond best to relatively high temperatures with an ideal range between 18 to 32 degrees Celsius. Cocoa trees usually grow in the lower levels of a rainforest and shade is important for young trees. Pests and Disease - Cocoa trees are susceptible to a host of issues including fungal diseases, insects, and rodents. Of these, the most common causes for concern include fungal diseases which cause the seed-bearing pod to rot - the oft mentioned black pod rot. Other commonly noted issues include swollen shoot virus, frosty pod rot, and cocoa pod borer. Pesticides and fungicides are the normal response to these issues. However, since many plantations are smallholdings in less developed nations, maintenance and care of trees can sometimes be cost-prohibitive. Political and Social Issues - Since over one-third of global cocoa comes from Ivory Coast, the markets are ever watchful for any political or social unrest. Farmers and export workers have, in the past, blocked exports in protest of pay rates or conditions. A fractured or unsettled political division in a producing nation can also disrupt supply.

_______________________________________________________________________________________ Disclaimer: There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading and it is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your account size and/or margin requirements. Commodities trading can be extremely risky and is not for everyone. Some trading strategies have unlimited risk. Educate yourself on the risks and rewards of such investing prior to trading. Futures Press Inc., the publisher, and/or its affiliates, staff or anyone associated with Futures Press, Inc. or www.learnaboutfutures.com, do not guarantee profits or pre-determined loss points, and are not held monetarily responsible for the trading losses of others (subscribers or otherwise). Past results are by no means indicative of potential future returns. Fundamental factors, seasonal and weather trends, and current events may have already been factored into the markets. Options DO NOT necessarily move lock step with the underlying futures contract. Information provided is compiled by sources believed to be reliable. Futures Press, Inc., and/or its principals, assume no responsibility for any errors or omissions as the information may not be complete or events may have been cancelled or rescheduled. Any copy, reprint, broadcast or distribution of this report of any kind is prohibited without the expressed written consent of Futures Press, Inc.